The frequency of tropical cyclones has remained constant over the past four decades, but their intensity has increased, with more cyclones reaching higher wind speeds.
The number of the most devastating category five cyclones has risen by 40 percent in the last decade, aligning with climate change projections.
Humanitarian crises resulting from cyclones are largely due to poverty, vulnerability, and a lack of protection for affected populations.
Cyclone Frequency and Intensity
An analysis of international databases confirms that while the annual number of tropical cyclones has remained steady over the past four decades, their intensity has increased. Since 1980, there has been an average of 47 cyclones each year, according to data from agencies recognized by the World Meteorological Organization and coordinated by the US Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Although the frequency has not changed, the average maximum wind speed of these cyclones has increased by five percent, from 182 to 192 kilometres per hour, over the last decade compared to the period from 1981 to 2010. The proportion of cyclones exceeding 250 km/h has grown from one in ten to 1.4 in ten.
Climate Change and Cyclone Impact
The increase in the number of the most severe category five cyclones by 40 percent supports projections by the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change that climate change will lead to more category four and five cyclones. This year, up to December 15, there have been 42 tropical cyclones globally, with 19 making landfall. Despite the growing intensity attributed to climate change, climatologist Robert Vautard emphasizes that the humanitarian impact of cyclones is primarily due to poverty, vulnerability, and a lack of protection for affected populations. The year 2024's strongest cyclone was Hurricane Milton, which struck the US in October with wind speeds of 278 kph. The west Pacific was the most affected region, experiencing 15 typhoons, including six in the Philippines.